Chapter 302

Learning not to confuse the strength of our beliefs for the strength of the evidence is, of course, one of the greatest, most difficult triumphs of our growth — as individuals, as societies, and as a species. - Popova

Wow. Just wow. That is a mouthful and if she thinks we have gotten there as Americans, America or the world, then we disagree. But do we need to get there? Oh yes. But this requires thinking and that is very much in short supply, I mean just look at the two stores next door to each other in my little community one with a sign that reads “must wear mask to enter” and the other “not allowed to wear mask inside.” Two strong beliefs, so strong that they are betting their economic well-being on it, and which one has the strength of evidence on their side? Well, both of them. You can find an equally confusing number of articles and doctors and arguments and science on both sides of this little debate of the moment.

So this points out one of the greatest challenges in the modern world - verifying your evidence. It is impossible I would argue, at least for a great many situations. There simply has not been enough time since we started wearing masks, nor the effort to put forth a large scale collaboration of data to move the “evidence” clearly in one direction or another. So people default back to the strength of their beliefs as strength of evidence. Its not actually so, but are there any alternatives?

Which brings us to the last point, that not all things have evidence of the same caliber. Whether wearing a mask will raise the percentage chance of me not getting Coronavirus, or the proof of the existence of God, or the character of a person in politics, the quality of evidence rarely is as pure as the quality of my belief.